- Certified Coatings Co.
- 2026
- 1
- 1
- 100.00%
- $115,768,339
- 7.16%
- 0.00%
- 29.75%
- $115,768,339

Cash flow will begin to drop after the initial mobilization phases of the 2026 Richmond San Rafael project conclude because the remaining $196 million backlog is spread across unusually long contract durations that front-load revenue early then taper into steady but lower monthly billings.
Short-Term (Next 3-6 Months) Cash Flow Outlook
The next three to six months should show stable positive cash flow supported by active work on the large 2026 project and residual billings from the 2024 San Joaquin and Los Angeles county jobs.
Medium-Term (6-12 Months) Outlook
Cash flow remains adequate through the medium term as the 480-month contract continues to generate consistent monthly draws but will require new awards to prevent gradual decline once early-stage payments normalize.
Potential Major Risk Period
The major risk period arrives in 12 to 24 months if no additional large contracts are secured because the current backlog will then be dominated by long-duration maintenance work with limited new revenue streams.
Recommended Actions For Securing New Work
The contractor should increase bid volume immediately in California transportation and bridge markets to rebuild pipeline momentum given the 0 percent success rate in 2025 and the single-bid dependency shown in 2026.
How Much New Backlog Is Needed To Maintain Monthly Cash Flow
Approximately $40 to $50 million in new backlog is required annually to sustain current monthly cash flow levels assuming typical coating project margins and the extended payout schedules observed in the existing portfolio.
Specific Recommendations For Backlog Targets And Timelines
Target $60 million in new low-bid awards within the next nine months and another $80 million by the end of 2027 to keep total backlog above $150 million and avoid revenue gaps from the aging project list.

