- AUI Albuquerque Underground
- 2026
- 4
- 1
- 25.00%
- $35,305,312
- 12.50%
- 21.81%
- 16.30%
- $79,239,573
Health Breakdown
Avg Left
-20
Success
40
Avg Avg
0
Year Proj
2 Year Prior Proj
-30
Qual Based
0
Cash Flow
-40
-50%
AI Cash Flow & Backlog Analysis
AUI Albuquerque Underground (Powered by Grok AI)
When Will Cash Flow Drop?
Cash flow will likely begin to decline after mid-2027 once the largest recent awards such as the 35 million dollar Colfax project and the 12 million dollar 2025 job reach peak billing phases and start winding down given their 120-month durations. The contractor's consistently low 20 to 25 percent success rate means insufficient new awards are replacing completed work at the needed pace.
Short-term (next 3-6 months) cash flow outlook
Cash flow should remain steady and positive through the next 3 to 6 months supported by active execution on the April 2026 Colfax award and the two 2025 low bids now in early mobilization. Long contract durations spread revenue recognition but provide predictable monthly billings from the existing 199 million dollar backlog.
Medium-term (6-12 months) outlook
The medium-term outlook shows moderate risk of softening cash flow as smaller older projects from 2022 and 2023 complete without enough replacement volume from the low bidding success rate. Revenue will continue from the remaining large 2024 and 2025 awards but at a slower burn rate due to extended timelines.
Potential major risk period
The major risk period emerges in late 2027 through 2028 when multiple 120-month and longer contracts approach substantial completion and the current backlog is largely exhausted without aggressive new wins. This gap is widened by the pattern of only one or two successful bids per year.
Recommended actions for securing new work
Increase bid volume beyond the recent five to eight jobs per year and sharpen pricing to improve the 25 percent success rate while targeting shorter-duration projects that accelerate cash conversion. Focus bidding efforts on recurring municipal and water infrastructure opportunities in New Mexico to build a steadier pipeline.
How much new backlog is needed to maintain monthly cash flow
Roughly 40 to 50 million dollars in new backlog must be added annually to sustain current cash flow levels assuming typical 120-month durations and the existing 199 million dollar backlog amortizes at about 3 to 4 million dollars per month. This replaces completed work and accounts for the low win rate.
Specific recommendations for backlog targets and timelines
Target securing at least 60 million dollars in new awards by the end of 2026 and another 80 million dollars by mid-2027 to maintain backlog above 150 million dollars. Prioritize bids with start dates in 2026 to avoid any gap in monthly revenue streams.
Cash flow will likely begin to decline after mid-2027 once the largest recent awards such as the 35 million dollar Colfax project and the 12 million dollar 2025 job reach peak billing phases and start winding down given their 120-month durations. The contractor's consistently low 20 to 25 percent success rate means insufficient new awards are replacing completed work at the needed pace.
Short-term (next 3-6 months) cash flow outlook
Cash flow should remain steady and positive through the next 3 to 6 months supported by active execution on the April 2026 Colfax award and the two 2025 low bids now in early mobilization. Long contract durations spread revenue recognition but provide predictable monthly billings from the existing 199 million dollar backlog.
Medium-term (6-12 months) outlook
The medium-term outlook shows moderate risk of softening cash flow as smaller older projects from 2022 and 2023 complete without enough replacement volume from the low bidding success rate. Revenue will continue from the remaining large 2024 and 2025 awards but at a slower burn rate due to extended timelines.
Potential major risk period
The major risk period emerges in late 2027 through 2028 when multiple 120-month and longer contracts approach substantial completion and the current backlog is largely exhausted without aggressive new wins. This gap is widened by the pattern of only one or two successful bids per year.
Recommended actions for securing new work
Increase bid volume beyond the recent five to eight jobs per year and sharpen pricing to improve the 25 percent success rate while targeting shorter-duration projects that accelerate cash conversion. Focus bidding efforts on recurring municipal and water infrastructure opportunities in New Mexico to build a steadier pipeline.
How much new backlog is needed to maintain monthly cash flow
Roughly 40 to 50 million dollars in new backlog must be added annually to sustain current cash flow levels assuming typical 120-month durations and the existing 199 million dollar backlog amortizes at about 3 to 4 million dollars per month. This replaces completed work and accounts for the low win rate.
Specific recommendations for backlog targets and timelines
Target securing at least 60 million dollars in new awards by the end of 2026 and another 80 million dollars by mid-2027 to maintain backlog above 150 million dollars. Prioritize bids with start dates in 2026 to avoid any gap in monthly revenue streams.
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